Read time: ≈ 15-18 min • Last updated: September 14, 2025
Executive summary: I remember watching my portfolio skyrocket in 2021—and then crash 70% because I made every classic mistake. I didn't take profits, I bought hype at the top, and I stored coins on sketchy exchanges. This guide shares everything I've learned about preparing for the next crypto bull run in 2025-2026: how to analyze cycle timing, build a balanced portfolio, create a profit-taking strategy, and avoid the emotional traps that cost me thousands last time.
Quick note: this article includes affiliate links to tools and exchanges I genuinely use. Read the disclosure below for details.
1. My 2021 mistakes: How I lost $42,000 in gains
I want to start with my failures because they're more educational than my successes. In 2021, I watched my portfolio grow to over $68,000—life-changing money for me at the time. Six months later, it was down to $26,000. Here's what went wrong:
Mistake #1: No profit-taking plan
I became greedy. Every time an asset doubled, I thought "it might 10x!" I didn't set price targets or take profits systematically. When the market turned, I watched gains evaporate day after day, frozen by indecision.
Mistake #2: Chasing hype at the top
I bought Dogecoin at $0.68 because Elon Musk tweeted about it. I bought Shiba Inu after it already pumped 1000%. I invested in "NFT projects" without understanding them. This was pure gambling, not investing.
Mistake #3: Poor security practices
I kept too many assets on exchanges for "quick trading." When Celsius collapsed, I lost access to funds for months. I nearly got phished twice. I was lucky not to get completely wiped out.
Mistake #4: Emotional trading
I bought when prices were pumping (FOMO) and sold when they were dumping (panic). I checked my portfolio 20+ times daily. I made decisions based on Twitter hype rather than research.
This time, I'm preparing differently. The following strategies are what I wish I had done in 2020.
2. Crypto cycle analysis: Are we due for a bull run?
While nobody can predict the future perfectly, crypto has shown remarkably consistent 4-year cycles tied to Bitcoin halvings. Here's what the data suggests for 2025-2026:
The halving cycle pattern
Bitcoin's halving events (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) have typically preceded major bull runs 12-18 months later. The 2024 halving puts us right in the sweet spot for potential growth in late 2025 through 2026.
2025 market conditions
Several factors make 2025 different from previous cycles:
- Institutional adoption: Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $250 billion in assets
- Regulatory clarity: MiCA in Europe and clearer US guidelines reduce uncertainty
- Technology maturation: Layer 2 solutions and better infrastructure support mass adoption
- Macroeconomic factors: Potential rate cuts could drive capital into risk assets
3. Bull run preparation checklist (2025 edition)
Here's my actionable checklist that I'm following right now. Don't wait until prices are pumping to implement these:
✅ Financial preparation
- Set aside dedicated investment capital (never risk money you can't afford to lose)
- Establish monthly DCA (dollar-cost averaging) amounts
- Pay off high-interest debt first (crypto gains are never guaranteed)
- Build an emergency fund in stablecoins or fiat
✅ Portfolio preparation
- Research and select core holdings (BTC, ETH, quality altcoins)
- Diversify across sectors (DeFi, AI, infrastructure, gaming)
- Allocate a small portion for speculative plays (I keep this under 10%)
- Build a stablecoin position for taking profits later
✅ Security preparation
- Set up hardware wallets for long-term holdings
- Enable 2FA on all exchanges with authenticator apps (not SMS)
- Create secure backups of seed phrases (metal plates, not paper)
- Use dedicated email addresses for crypto accounts
✅ Mental preparation
- Write down your investment thesis for each holding
- Establish price targets for profit-taking
- Prepare for 30-50% drawdowns even in a bull market
- Limit social media consumption during volatile periods
4. Portfolio strategy: How I'm allocating now
Based on my 2021 lessons, here's the portfolio structure I'm building for the potential 2025-2026 cycle:
Core holdings (60%)
These are my foundation assets that I believe will outperform regardless of market conditions:
- Bitcoin (40%): Digital gold, institutional favorite, halving narrative
- Ethereum (20%): DeFi and NFT foundation, ongoing upgrades
- Blue-chip altcoins (40%): Established projects with real utility (SOL, ADA, DOT)
Growth allocation (25%)
Promising projects in emerging sectors with higher risk/reward profiles:
- AI and blockchain convergence (40%): FET, AGIX, OCEAN
- DeFi 2.0 infrastructure (30%): Layer 2 tokens, oracle networks, lending protocols
- NFT and gaming ecosystems (30%): Projects with real utility beyond speculation
Speculative plays (15%)
High-risk, high-potential projects and early-stage investments. I treat this as "casino money" that I'm prepared to lose completely.
| Portfolio Tier | Allocation | Risk Level | Time Horizon | Examples |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Holdings | 60% | Low-Medium | 3-5 years | BTC, ETH, SOL |
| Growth Allocation | 25% | Medium-High | 1-3 years | FET, DOT, MATIC |
| Speculative Plays | 15% | Very High | 6-18 months | New launches, micro-caps |
5. Security first: Don't get hacked during mania
Bull markets attract hackers like bees to honey. Here's my security protocol that I've refined since 2021:
Hardware wallet setup
I store 95% of my long-term holdings on a Ledger hardware wallet. The only assets on exchanges are what I'm actively trading or staking.
Exchange security
I use dedicated emails for each exchange, enable whitelisting for withdrawals, and use authenticator apps instead of SMS for 2FA. I also regularly review connected apps and API keys.
Operational security
I never discuss portfolio sizes online, use a VPN when accessing exchanges on public networks, and verify website URLs before entering credentials (bookmark official sites).
6. Profit-taking strategy: My exit plan
This is where I failed most spectacularly in 2021. Now I have a written profit-taking plan:
Tiered selling approach
I divide each position into thirds with different price targets:
- First 33%: Sell at 2-3x initial investment (recoup initial capital + profit)
- Second 33%: Sell at 5-10x (let winners run but secure serious gains)
- Final 33%: Hold long-term or sell at extreme euphoria levels
Market condition indicators
I watch for classic bull market top signals:
- Bitcoin dominance dropping below 40%
- Extreme greed readings on fear and greed index (>90)
- Shitcoin market caps exceeding reasonable levels
- Mainstream media declaring "crypto is the future" daily
- Friends and family asking how to buy obscure tokens
Tax planning
I set aside 30% of profits immediately for tax obligations. Nothing ruins a bull market like a massive tax bill you can't pay.
7. Mental preparation: Handling FOMO and fear
The psychological aspect of bull markets is arguably more important than the technical analysis. Here's how I'm preparing mentally:
FOMO prevention protocol
When I feel the urge to chase a pumping asset, I:
- Wait 24 hours before buying anything that's up more than 50% in a day
- Research the project thoroughly (not just Twitter hype)
- Allocate only from my speculative portion (never from core holdings)
- Set strict stop-losses if I do decide to buy
Emotional discipline rules
I've written these rules and posted them above my desk:
- Check portfolio no more than 3x daily (set specific times)
- No trading after 10 PM (fatigue leads to mistakes)
- Don't read comments on Crypto Twitter (especially during volatility)
- Take profits when happy, not when forced by market conditions
8. Essential tools and resources
These are the tools I'm using to prepare and will use during the bull market:
Tracking and analysis
TradingView: For chart analysis and setting price alerts
CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap: Portfolio tracking and market data
Glassnode: On-chain analytics for market cycle analysis
Security tools
Ledger Nano X/S: Cold storage for long-term holdings
Authy/Google Authenticator: 2FA for exchange accounts
ProtonMail: Dedicated encrypted email for crypto accounts
Information sources
I curate my information intake carefully—avoiding hype merchants and focusing on builders, analysts, and educators who provide substance over sensationalism.
9. My 2025-2026 bull run timeline prediction
Based on historical patterns and current market conditions, here's my tentative timeline (remember: predictions are guesses, not guarantees):
Q4 2024 - Q2 2025: Accumulation phase
Building positions, DCAing into quality assets, finalizing security setup. This is where we ideally are now.
Q3 2025 - Q1 2026: Bull market initiation
Potential breakout from accumulation ranges, increasing media attention, altcoins beginning to outperform Bitcoin.
Q2 2026 - Q4 2026: Euphoria phase
Maximum greed, parabolic moves, mainstream FOMO. This is when profit-taking becomes crucial.
2027: Distribution and downturn
Market topping process, declining momentum, transition to bear market. Time to preserve capital.
10. Conclusion: Start preparing now
The biggest mistake you can make is waiting until the bull market is obvious to everyone. By then, the best opportunities are gone, and you're buying from smarter investors who accumulated early.
My advice based on painful experience: start preparing now. Build your portfolio gradually, prioritize security, create a profit-taking plan, and work on your emotional discipline.
Bull markets make everyone feel like geniuses temporarily. Bear markets reveal who was actually prepared. This time, I'm determined to be in the second group—and I hope this guide helps you join me.
Remember: it's not about predicting the future perfectly. It's about preparing for multiple scenarios and having the discipline to stick to your plan when emotions run high.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and risky. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Sources & further reading
- Glassnode On-Chain Analytics (2025 Report)
- CoinMetrics Network Data Analysis
- Historical Bitcoin Cycle Analysis
- PlanB Stock-to-Flow Model Updates
- CryptoCompare Exchange Reports
FAQ — quick answers
A: Based on historical Bitcoin halving cycles, the next significant bull run could begin in late 2025 and extend through 2026. However, markets are unpredictable—focus on preparation rather than timing.
A: Only invest what you can afford to lose completely. A good approach is to determine your total crypto allocation (3-5% of net worth is conservative for most people), then dollar-cost average into that position over 6-12 months.
A: Focus on quality over quantity. Bitcoin and Ethereum should form your foundation (60-70%), then add established altcoins with real utility (20-30%), and keep a small portion (5-10%) for speculative plays. Never invest in projects you don't understand.
A: Create a written plan now that includes: 1) Price targets for taking profits, 2) Rules for when to sell (both profit-taking and stop-losses), 3) Limits on how often you check your portfolio, 4) A commitment to avoid FOMO buying. Review this plan regularly.
This article is informational only and not financial advice. Verify product details on issuer sites and consult a professional before making large investments. Cryptocurrency investments are extremely volatile and may result in significant losses.